While this year’s strong El Niño may play havoc in other parts of the country and the world, in the Great Lakes region it’s likely that we won’t need to talk about the polar vortex and the “snowpocalypse” this winter.
 

The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA is forecasting an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and a greater chance for below-normal precipitation across most of the Great Lakes region this winter.

 

“This does not mean that cold weather will not happen this winter,” said Molly Woloszyn, IISG climate specialist. “But typical extreme cold weather may be milder and less frequent.”

 

An El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the equatorial Pacific for an extended period of time. This year’s version is already considered to be strong and likely to become a bit stronger. Although each El Niño is different, they offer some predictable patterns.

 



Unlike the past two winters when heavy snow and bitter cold were the norm, if warmer conditions do occur this winter, this may mean less ice cover on the lakes. It might also mean reduced snowpack accumulation and therefore, less runoff into the lakes, which is a major contributor to lake levels.

 

Also, less lake ice means more evaporation off the lake surfaces. “Since the lakes are mostly at above average levels right now, this could lead to a return to normal water levels,” said Woloszyn.

 

Mild winters can have many positives impacts in the region. They are typically good for the economy (unless you are in the snow business)—heating costs go down, transportation runs smoother, and retail sales pick up. And they are generally good for agriculture, although some crop pests are more likely to survive the winter.

 

You can find this and more information in a special edition of the Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook develop by NOAA, the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Environment Canada, and other partners.

-Irene Miles

 

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IISG is hiring a part-time pollution prevention outreach assistant. IISG’s pollution prevention team addresses water quality issues affecting the Great Lakes coasts and the inland waters of Illinois and Indiana, specifically focusing on contaminants of emerging concern like pharmaceuticals, microplastics and marine debris, and PFAS. This outreach assistant will support the pollution prevention team by developing outreach activities and engaging with communities to share that knowledge.Learn more and apply at the link in bio.
Don't miss out on the latest edition of our "Making Waves in Education" newsletter! Reserve your spot for a live, Students Ask Scientists call from Lake Superior, and stay updated on upcoming in-person events to learn and network with fellow educators. Perfect for Illinois and Indiana educators passionate about the Great Lakes and environmental education.
Join us on June 6-7 at the Indiana State Fairgrounds to explore aquaculture business management at the NCRAC Aquaculture Business Short Course! Presented by Sea Grant & @purdueextension, this course provides essential skills for effective farm finance management. Don’t miss this opportunity to enhance your expertise in aquaculture!Important Info:-Hands-on training to help aquaculture producers manage their farm finances-Includes one-on-one expert time + free $120 textbook-Instructors from Purdue, Mississippi State, and University of Maryland-Laptop + farm financials required for participation-Limited seating – first come, first served!More info at the link in bio.
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